Every ad dollar we spend fuels algorithms we know are harming people, chewing up the environment, and stoking hate between neighbors.

I must face the fact that my beloved field of marketing contributes to some of society’s biggest problems.

It pains me to write about this. I mean, I’m part of the problem, too. But it’s time to start this conversation because the traditional marketing approach is at a breaking point.

• AI-driven amplification of addiction
• Deep fake, misinformation, the decline of trust
• Easy AI content requires more energy consumption
• U.S. Surgeon General’s warnings on youth mental health and social media

We need to consider what it means to lead and sponsor ethically-sourced marketing.

Let’s break this problem down into four categories today:

• ADDICTION
• DIVISION
• ENERGY / ENVIRONMENT
• OPERATING WITH VALUES 

1. Addiction

Back in my corporate days, I dreamed of creating a product or service so great that people would be addicted to it. I remember saying those words out loud.

Before the internet, the chance of doing that was slim, especially in B2B. We didn’t have the repetitive internet memes, challenges, or reels that could drive people down a rabbit hole.

But today, marketers fund a system where attention is literally the product being sold. And it’s working exactly as designed.

Here’s the basic math nobody wants to talk about. Engagement equals money. Five billion people spending over two hours a day on these platforms? That’s not accidental. That’s the entire business model. Every scroll, every like, every second you spend staring at your screen — that’s a data point being harvested to sell more targeted ads.

The platforms use artificial intelligence to analyze your emotions, habits, and vulnerabilities. They’re predicting human behavior at scale.

But here’s where it gets really interesting, and honestly, a bit sinister. The designers of these platforms have deliberately borrowed from the playbook of slot machines and casinos. Infinite scroll. Autoplay. Those little notifications that pop up right when you’re about to put the phone down? They’re triggering the same reward circuits that gambling does.

It’s the variable reward schedule that behavioral psychologists have understood for decades, now deployed across billions of devices.

Think about the “like” button. It’s a dopamine delivery system. You post something, and you get that little hit of validation when people engage. So you post again. And again. The platform has essentially weaponized human psychology for engagement.

How many of you optimize likes and engagement as an essential part of your career success?

It gets worse. Younger brains are exponentially more susceptible to this stuff because they’re still developing the neurological circuits for impulse control and delayed gratification. U.S. children generate more than $11 billion in advertising revenue for major social media platforms.

Let that sink in. $11 billion extracted from the psychological vulnerabilities of kids who don’t yet have the brain development to resist these systems.

The platforms give lip service to parental controls and safeguards, but they don’t care.

Your marketing dollars fuel the addiction machine. Digital ad dollars are hurting children.

Addiction is the foundation, but the consequences don’t stop at endless scrolling. They spill into something darker.

2. Division

In the social media world we all love, hate is good for business.

A Wall Street Journal investigative report revealed that Facebook knew that its core social media product makes the world more toxic and divided.

“Our algorithms exploit the human brain’s attraction to divisiveness,” read a slide from an internal presentation. “If left unchecked,” it warned, Facebook would feed users “more and more divisive content in an effort to gain user attention & increase time on the platform.”

One example: 64 percent of the growth in online extremist groups was fueled by Facebook’s own recommendation algorithms!

The company assigned a high-level team to develop a plan to combat this issue … and they did. But then Mark Zuckerberg shelved the basic research and blocked efforts to apply its conclusions to Facebook products. In fact, the Facebook leader has publicly denied his company’s findings and recommendations.

Why?

An internal report said that moderating hate was anti-growth.

That makes me sick. When hate becomes a growth strategy, every advertiser becomes a silent financier of dysfunction.

While the emotional toll of division is staggering, the physical toll on the planet is just beginning to surface.

3. Energy and Environmental Impact

Last year, I was honored to be a keynote speaker at the Belgian Association of Marketing’s annual conference, a first-class event. It was there that I met Dr. Victoria Hurth. She introduced the audience to a new way of looking at marketing and its impact on the environment. I felt ashamed that I had never really considered these realities.

Victoria Hurth

Marketing, she said, is the engine of demand. That’s our superpower. And it’s also part of the environmental problem.

When we stimulate desire, we stimulate production, shipping, packaging, and, too often, waste. The question isn’t whether marketing affects the environment. It’s whether we’re willing to measure it.

Even “digital” isn’t clean.

Programmatic ads ride on massive server networks that consume real energy. An industry analysis shows the carbon cost of every ad impression — grams of CO? tied directly to the ads we place. One publisher cut its emissions 70% with smarter supply-path decisions, with no revenue loss.

E-commerce? It helps when it consolidates freight … until fast shipping and high return rates obliterate any benefit. U.S. product returns alone generated 24 million metric tons of CO? last year and sent billions of pounds of goods to landfills.

Even our content diet carries a carbon footprint. Streaming and online video now account for an estimated 3–4 percent of global emissions. “Virtual” isn’t virtual. It’s powered by real data centers, real devices, real infrastructure.

And then there’s AI.

OpenAI’s planned chip network may consume 250 gigawatts of power by 2033. That’s one-fifth of America’s total electric generation capacity today. If OpenAI were a country, it would be the seventh-largest electricity producer on the planet. Energy prices are already rising nationwide, as is the environmental impact.

So yes, even creativity now carries a carbon cost.

Dr. Hurth argues that businesses must prioritize human sustainability over profits. It sounds idealistic — until you realize the alternative.

We’re not just creating demand. We’re creating emissions.

4. Operating with values

In the early days of web marketing, I attended a presentation by an SEO “pioneer.” He had hired home-bound disabled people to pose as online commenters in an effort to impact his customers’ search results.

When it came time for the Q&A, I asked, “How do you live with yourself? This is so unethical!”

He responded, “It works. And if I didn’t do it, somebody else would.”

Too often, marketers opt for “what works” and turn a blind eye to the holistic impact of their actions on the world and our customers. A brand strategist is a role in which you are effectively a cosmetic surgeon for capital.

While hiring people to fake our content seems extreme, aren’t we doing the same thing today with AI? Half the comments left on my content are AI-generated fakes.

I learned at a recent meeting that 85% of companies use AI to generate content and that, on average, their content output has increased by 45%.

To what end? To replace humans? To add to the barrage of noise we must endure to find truth? To consume vast amounts of energy and clean water to generate AI slop?

Can we keep one eye on the bottom line and one on our moral compass? If we don’t reclaim the soul of our work, the machines will do it for us.

What do we do about it?

First, let me emphasize that I’m proud to be a marketer. The marketer is the creator, the innovator, the front line of our business. We can be the beacon, shining a light on the good and the worthy.

Throughout history, advertising and marketing have played a role in positive societal change and in creating demand for life-changing products.

Second, the weight of these problems does not necessarily fall solely on us. We’re expected to work in a deeply flawed social media / digital environment beyond our control. Any real change would require complex systemic changes.

So what’s the point of this post?

I’m willing to bet every person reading this has had pain in their heart over the online safety of our children, the impact of global warming, and the divisions that are tearing countries and families apart.

Am I suggesting that we sell less? Quit digital advertising? Abandon profitability?

No. But at a minimum, we need to open this conversation and re-frame the marketing profession in a more holistic context. Any change begins with awareness.

What if marketing became the world’s most powerful engine for human flourishing instead of manipulation? What if innovation, storytelling, and creativity were measured not just by impressions but by the impact we have on the people we serve?”

I don’t have the answers. But here are a few ideas I picked up from Dr. Hurth and others.

Reframe success.

Replace metrics like engagement and impressions with impact: well-being, trust, sustainability, and authentic connection. Isn’t this why we love the Patagonia brand? It can be done.

Track “advertised emissions,” addiction time, and content energy use alongside ROI. Transparency changes behavior. Above, I cited the Scope3 research. One publisher cut average CO2 per thousand impressions by about 70% through supply-path optimization, with no revenue loss.

Design for restraint.

Use creativity to promote durability, repair, and reuse. Ask: “Does this campaign help or harm long-term human flourishing?” Re-use is a significant priority for Gen Z shoppers. A positive trend!

Invest in ethical tech.

Support platforms and partners committed to transparency, safety, and carbon-neutral operations. The energy efficiency of most technologies (especially AI) is increasing at a breathtaking rate. Are you aware of the relative energy use of your tech stack?

Lead with humanity.

Make ethics a competitive advantage. Reward teams for doing the right thing, not just the fastest or cheapest.

“Ethically Sourced Marketing” is a new idea. Corporate culture doesn’t change without a leader who makes this a priority. If this idea catches on, it will likely be because one person embraces the change and sets an example.

Dramatic change is possible

Here’s a point of inspiration.

Madewell, a German-based clothing retailer, is working to eliminate plastics, aiming to have 100% of its packaging be sustainably sourced and free of virgin plastic by the end of this year. The brand is also reducing plastic in its products by increasing its use of sustainably sourced fibers and recycled materials, such as recycled insulation and recycled nylon, and is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2030. 

I read that the CEO is even trying to eliminate plastic pens in their offices.

Can you imagine how difficult it would be to eliminate all plastic in your company? But one leader is driving this change, shaping a company culture that makes a difference on a vast scale.

If one company can eliminate plastic, I have hope that somebody out there can eliminate marketing and advertising that contribute to hate, polarization, addiction, and waste.

There has never been a better time to re-evaluate what we do and how we do it.

If positive change seems unattainable, here’s a good place to start: If you are directly or indirectly doing things that people hate, STOP IT.

Double down on what people love. Trust. Transparency. Humanity. Community. Ethics. A responsible, measurable environmental impact.

Eugene Healey wrote:

“We have to fight under the contradictions of capitalism. That’s non-negotiable. But we should still get to do so by creating beautiful things. In that, we can find meaning.

“If you’re a marketer, make things you believe should exist. If you’re a senior marketer, make the case for the existence of beautiful things. Look at your brand advertising, your out-of-home, hell, even your performance ads, and ask yourself: does this make some meaningful contribution to public space, or at the very least not deplete it?”

The Most Human Company Wins. Keep fighting the good fight.

Help me start this conversation by sharing this post with your marketing and advertising friends. Thank you.

Need an inspiring keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

Illustration courtesy MidJourney

The post Is it time to embrace ethically-sourced marketing? appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

SXSW 2024 was a gathering of thought leadership, providing a glimpse of “what’s next” in media, technology, and marketing, among other topics. I’ve been attending SXSW since 2010. It’s expensive, crowded, and — with 500 sessions a day — overwhelming — but I regard it as an essential part of my professional growth.

Each year has its own personality. My first conference in 2010 represented the dawn of social media — unbridled excitement! SXSW 2024 seemed more somber as attendees pondered deep fakes, the existential nature of AI, humanoid robotics, quantum computing, inclusivity, and mental health.

I took pages and pages of notes — this is a serious learning opportunity! But I wanted to pass along at least a few observations. I want to emphasize that my experience is a tiny sliver of the SXSW 2024 reality. I skipped out on the celebrities, the movie debuts, and the glitzy brand activation parties in favor of relevant topics, smaller discussions and intimate dinners.

I attended a workshop on how to be a futurist. The big a-ha for me was approaching various future scenarios through storytelling. Articulating a narrative about the future makes you think through the implications of trends. Very useful.

The first research on Gen Alpha was interesting. Gen Alpha is 0-10 years old so this came through interviews with their Millennial parents. They are projected to be:

• Fiscally conservative, an outfall of parents who are in debt
• Highly aware of brands and brand preferences
• Already influential in family purchase decisions
• The first headset generation. They prefer VR to tablets
• Non-readers of book
• 40% spend at least three hours a day online, and 24% spend at least 7 hours a day on a smartphone (if they have one).

Researchers emphasize the critical value of intuition in the AI Era: “The greatest source of wisdom is in our bodies.”

An interesting idea: Imagine your brand as a character. What would it look like? What would it say? What is its aesthetic?

There has been progress with technology to detect deep fakes but the social media platforms have rejected it because hate and controversy are good for their ad sales. Experts point out that elections are already being disrupted around the world by deep fake content and the US election is going to be a misinformation shit show. Biggest threat in 2024 is voice fakes, in 2025, realistic video avatars. Sora was mentioned as a game-changer.

There are 100,000 applications that make deep fakes. Nobody stands a chance to discern deep fakes without technological support. We need AI to beat AI.

During a keynote discussion about OpenAI, protesters yelled outside, pleading to protect the jobs of graphic designers. Poignant moment and an uphill battle.

Interesting research on what creates customer immersion (beyond engagement):

1. Awareness – Overcoming distractions and getting their attention. Include them on their terms.
2. Willingness – They decide to participate. Is it worthwhile? Do we have the time? Are there others we know who are involved? Is it safe? Safety is crucial.
3. Connection – Does it meet expectations? What is it offering? Can I contribute? If you don’t make this connection quickly and clearly, you lose people. “I was drawn in, it seemed relevant.” Once they are engaged, is the safety validated? Learning about the norms of the group.
4. Investment – Risking their social capital, giving their attention, an ongoing investment. People want to see an immediate return. Is the community responsive to my needs?
5. Sharing – Earned by a gratifying experience. We want other people to share this experience. Community networks are the key to engagement loops (self-sustaining engagement, collective immersion)

SXSW 2024 was filled with thrilling brand activations like this 3D spatial computer promotion for a Netflix series.

I was encouraged to see a lot of content focused on the importance of word-of-mouth marketing as a “lived brand experience.” I wrote extensively about this in Marketing Rebellion as a key part of the future of marketing. I really think we are moving into a new era of brand marketing!

58% of Gen Z think the more absurd, the cooler it is. 82% say being weird is in. Perhaps discomfort is the future of marketing – breaking taboos.

Commercial humanoid robots are a year away and will be under $50,000. Good at moving things and lifting, nimble physical dexterity. Integration with AI allows more human-like decision-making.

TikTok has established an expectation that brands are defined by co-creation (re-mixing memes) and community instead of “broadcasting.” Co-creation is the language of the platform. You no longer have full control of your brand. Brands have to learn the language of creation. People expect brands to be part of the humor and that might poke fun at a brand.

There has been a lot written about the amount of time people spend scrolling on TikTok but what is not being captured the enormous time spent on creating for TikTok. It really stunned me to realize how many people are devoting their lives to ephemeral content in the hope of their 15 minutes of fame.

Another realization … almost every TikTok viral brand “success story” is a fluke. It wasn’t planned, it wasn’t strategized, it had nothing to do with an intentional creative effort. The famous cranberry juice case study is an example. TikTok’s recommendation for success: Lower your brand standards. Hmmmmm … that is not going to be a popular suggestion.

Growth in the gaming industry is stagnant, and the business is experiencing an upheaval due to consolidations and new platforms. Instead of new titles, growth is expected to come through interactivity and community.

With a history of employee abuse, the game industry is expected to be unionized.

SXSW 2024 was filled with a lot of movie star glitz, but I skipped that part (and the lines!) to focus on educational sessions that will energize me for the rest of the year!

Major marketing industry disruptors disclosed in various sessions:

• Hyper-fragmentation of culture and media. How do we reach them? 250 million creators = 250 million new media channels
• Rapid growth of Discord and other private communities
  Ad-free social media platforms
• No watercooler moments – no shared experiences due to isolation
• Spatial computing
• Immersive and metaverse — headset costs will drop, experiencing products will be transformed
• Data privacy — 2.6 billion data records breached in the last year
• Crackdown on collecting biometric data
• Data wallets. Consumers control the narrative
• Sustainability — Advertising eats up a lot of energy. Times Square could power 160,000 homes
• Neuroscience — EEGs, Eye tracking, wearables, neural links. Meta is working on a tech that can read your mind
• Real-time advertising reactions enabled by AI
• There is a backlash against purpose-driven marketing because too many brands make promises they don’t keep.

Japanese technology used human brainwaves to communicate with a 3d printer and print a functional guitar. The command line is “your thoughts.”

We are in a technology supercycle that will create sustained changes in the economy. The last example was the Internet. Three technologies are driving this cycle: AI, biotech, and interconnected devices.

What if somebody creates an “AI event” with thousands of fake accounts and a variety of real content and reactions? It would take us a long time to figure out it was fake, and by that time, it could trigger a real-life reaction. The end state of AI is not cartoon images; it is a war, stated futurist Amy Webb. You can watch her talk here:

AI is running out of data, so companies are inventing new devices to get more data into their systems. We are about to be surrounded by millions of sensors to not only know what to say next but also what to do next. VR, like Apple Vision Pro, is a face computer that will collect details about your life. It will read your intentions by reading your pupils, which react before your body does. It will know what you will do before you do it. There will be a battle for face supremacy.

If somebody steals your biometric or movement identity, there is no way to get it back or reset it.

The market does not reward safety. It rewards supremacy.

An organoid is a computer grown from human brain cells. This is already happening. Brain-based computing (organoid intelligence) disconnects our need for rare materials and massive energy consumption.

AI will create massive disruption in jobs and the economy. Governments need to create a Department of Transition (create a soft landing for businesses, move people to trades)

Compared to other years, social media, content marketing, and Web3 were down; podcasts, metaverse, influencers, privacy, experiential marketing, community, and storytelling were up. And of course, AI was featured in a thousand sessions!

Well, those are a few takeaways from SXSW 2024. Hope you found something useful here and maybe I’ll see you at SXSW next year?

Need a keynote speaker? Mark Schaefer is the most trusted voice in marketing. Your conference guests will buzz about his insights long after your event! Mark is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books, a college educator, and an advisor to many of the world’s largest brands. Contact Mark to have him bring a fun, meaningful, and memorable presentation to your company event or conference.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram

The post What’s Next? Reflections on #SXSW 2024 appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

Threads.

Of course you know about it. It’s the hottest thing in social media since … Mastodon?

But I don’t think Meta’s Twitter killer will work as a social media platform because I’ve seen this song and dance before, and it didn’t work then, either. So let’s explore today the case against Threads.

What’s the problem with Threads?

For a new social media platform to succeed — or for any business to succeed— it has to solve a customer problem. Threads is the same as Twitter, with far less meaningful functionality. So I am truly struggling to see the business case here. What problem is solved by Threads?

Most people say it is the place for Twitter haters. But so was Mastadon and Bluesky. Are you going to Bluesky every day instead of Twitter? That’s what I thought.

Let’s not forget that Google Plus was the place for Facebook haters. I was the only blogger in the universe who predicted G+ would not work — on the very day it was launched.

Same reason — we already had a social network. It was called Facebook. G+ did not solve a unique problem. It was just a place for Facebook haters. I wrote at the time that it is far easier to move to a new house in another city than to move to a new social network and take your friends, your communities, your games, etc. along with you.

People only have the bandwidth for one social media function. We have one YouTube. We have one LinkedIn. We already have one Twitter. That’s all we need.

Google Plus was the fastest-adopted technology in history at the time. Once the novelty wore off, it crashed hard. The reason for the crash? Well, that’s a story for another day. Well … OK, if you really want the story, it’s here.

Twitter drama

Many early Thread advocates are relieved to be away from the Musk-induced Twitter drama. The currency of Twitter is conflict. Threads is the block party for Twitter haters, and there are lots of reasons to hate what has happened there. But being “not Twitter” is not a sustainable source of differentiation.

Twitter’s heaviest users, like journalists and activists, have built an audience and meaningful assets on the site. This is where they have their Lists, Twitter Chats, and breaking news. It’s their home. Will there be a mass exodus because they’re tired of the Twitter chaos, or are they immune to it by now?

One pundit said recently that Twitter was like a Chekhov play — everyone says they’re going to leave, but they never do.

Others have expressed a love for Threads because it’s less spammy and toxic. But what’s going to keep Threads from becoming spammy and toxic? It’s the same swamp, folks. Is Zuck and Meta more deserving of our trust than Twitter? Spoiler alert: NO.

I think curiosity and FOMO will drive early adoption, but what will keep us there? I don’t think there is a there there.

What’s a Fediverse?

When you sign up for Threads, Meta taunts you with the idea that the technology is all blockchain-y and that Threads is the lead component in a “Fediverse” that is a “new type of social network that allows people to follow and interact on different platforms such as Mastodon.”

Oooooh my. I get to connect to my zero friends on Mastodon?

Allow me to interpret what this really means (I speak fluent Meta). What Zuck wants to do is have access to all your friends and activity on every social network so he can sell you more targeted ads. I do not believe this solves any problem for us. The Fediverse solves a problem for Facebook.

Threads needs Gen Z

There are two wildcards that could torpedo all of the arguments in this post and make Threads a huge success.

1. Twitter dies
2. A young Instagram audience previously disconnected from Twitter discovers Threads and adopts it.

To win at strategy number 2, Threads has to be cool. I looked up the Gen Z word for cool, and it would be “fire,” “extra,” or “fit.” Yeah, that. It has to be fit.

I think that’s the only hope and the card Zuck needs to play — find the “tipping point,” a strategy chronicled by Malcolm Gladwell in his book of the same name.  If you attract a critical mass of the buzzy cool kids, the movement begins. There is some indication that this is exactly what Meta is trying to do when it provided early access to many A-List celebrities and brands.

Allowing Insta-fans to jump-start their Threads account by automatically adding current followers makes Threads at least an easy experiment because there is no “cold start.” This is less attractive for traditional Twitter users since there is probably not much overlap between the followers in these networks.

Lance R. Fletcher observed that the youth migration could already be happening:

“One of the biggest Instagram groups, Bookstagram, has migrated already. Artstagram and Poetrygram are also moving to Threads. It’s gaining ground on Twitter because of creator-centric and creator-friendly brands adopting the platform.

“That was a core weakness of Twitter — it’s focused on being business-forward. The lack of DM capability on Threads as of now, destroys the appeal for the people on Twitter who required it– MLMs and “coaching.”

“The older creator economy has been left out. Most of us don’t like making UGC for TikTok and Reels, and we liked the community of Twitter before it was taken over by MLM and hate speech.

“Instagram lacked the ease of direct engagement of Twitter. This fixes that problem. It also fixes the siloing problem of Mastodon, and the artifice of hashtag engagement in Twitter and BlueSky, something Gen Z does actually care about.”

Will GenZ care about having a new public square? That’s not why they are Instagram in the first place. Instagram is a place to avoid the public square.

The last wildcard

There is another factor in this battle: ego.

Musk and Zuckerberg have titanic egos. Musk already came out swinging with a lawsuit against Meta. There are sure to be surprises in store. Musk is not going to go down with swatting back. Could this be the jolt Twitter needed all along?

Get out the popcorn!

Any way, my job is to connect the dots and see where the path might lead for all you wonderful marketers. May your dots be connected, your threads be bright, and your FOMO at zero as we surge onto yet another social media platform.

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant. The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak at your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram.

The post Why Threads won’t work without Gen Z appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

On the latest episode of The Marketing Companion, I decided to take a deep dive into the nooks and crannies of social media marketing, and there’s nobody better to accompany me than marketing genius Dennis Yu.

Dennis studies the art and science of social media success to the Nth degree and we get into some fascinating discussions that include:

• The ROI of a blue check mark
• The viral power of feel-good stories
• A social media platform that is killing it right now
• How social media platforms are using facial and image recognition to elevate content
• Why replay rate is the key to success on TikTok
• Insights into what’s happening with Meta and the metaverse

Dennis also shares a unique perspective on how search engines and social platforms are turning over information to the US government. But TikTok doesn’t have to … which could be influencing the government’s position with that platform.

Click here to listen to episode 270

Resources mentioned in this show

TikTok Advertising book

Blog post: Why hate is good for business

Ocean Spray cranberry juice case study

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant. The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak at your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram.

Illustration courtesy MidJourney

The post What is the ROI of a blue check mark? appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

A the urging of my website advisor, I did some housekeeping here on the blog. It was time to sweep out some older blog posts that were either irrelevant or ignored by the world. But I came across a gem — An old list of marketing predictions!

In 2009, I made 12 marketing predictions about the future of social media. There wasn’t any timeframe specified … they were just predictions about “the future.” I thought it would be fun to give myself a report card and see how I did on the predictions.

To set the stage, in 2009, social media marketing was just creeping into the mainstream. There weren’t any big social media marketing conferences, nothing like “content marketing,” and nobody was using the term “influencers.” Measurement was almost impossible, blogging was a new rage, and Twitter was just building steam.

So as you read my marketing predictions, you’ll have to imagine a world where most companies didn’t even have a Twitter account yet! I summarized some of the marketing predictions to keep this article short, but you can see the original prediction post here.

The 2009 marketing predictions … and my “grade!”

1. “Hyper social measurement”

Back in 2009, social media marketing measurement was a huge problem. The metrics coming out of the newly-emerging social media platforms were terrible. I predicted that Google would become the gold standard for social media monitoring since they could see data and interactions across all channels. They would put social listening platforms out of business.

My grade: D

Google and Google Analytics did become an important source of marketing measurement, so my prediction is not quite a fail. However, today we rely on a mix of platform dashboards and third-party social listening platforms like the AI-powered Sprinklr to let us know what’s happening in the social media world.

2. Tapping into text messaging

In 2009, the one communication mode largely untouched by real-time search was text messaging. Text messages were a goldmine of information too big to ignore, especially if you’re a “cool-hunting” consumer products company.  I predicted that somehow companies would tap into this data, perhaps by incentivizing users to opt-in to rewards programs for their anonymized data.

My grade: B+

In fact, Facebook (Meta) did find a way to own much of the world’s private messaging through Messenger and WhatsApp.

Messenger was introduced in 2011, and WhatsApp in 2010. Another big cache of private messaging is occurring on Instagram (Meta) and TikTok.

Meta does not completely own the market on private messaging — we still send text messages — but the company is capturing data on 200 billion messages a day on Messenger and WhatsApp combined!

3. Real-time geo-sensitive coupons

In 2009, the idea that relevant ads would show up when you were in a certain location was still science fiction. I predicted that RFID technology, combined with GPS, would enable convenient, real-time deals, right down to the store shelf.

For example, if you pick up a blouse off of a rack, a message will direct you to the precise area of the store where you can find a matching skirt … on sale just for you.

My grade: B+

We’re not exactly at that “shelf-level” yet, but we will be. And we certainly have real-time, geo-appropriate ads coming to us based on the city we’re in or a road we’re driving on, so my prediction more or less came true.

4. Radical privacy movement

I predicted that the intense data gathering by Big Tech would result in privacy regulations, including the right to be excluded from Internet data-gathering mechanisms like cookies. I thought that there would be a backlash against Google because the company would eventually abuse its power.

My grade: A

Almost every country in the world has privacy regulations in place. We all have the ability to control privacy settings by law. With the eventual demise of cookies, this trend will continue. I would not say Google is the most hated company. That title would probably go to Facebook, but my reasoning was sound.

5. Man-machine interface.

Medical advances and social media platforms would converge.  We would be able to engage on social media with our thoughts. Humans will have markings like tattoos to display the premium, designer brand of devices embedded in their bodies. This will give new meaning to the tagline “Intel Inside.”

My grade: Too soon to tell

Remember, I wasn’t predicting something 10 or 20 years into the future. It was just something that would happen at some time. There have been incredible breakthroughs in tapping into brainwaves, so my prediction is certainly directionally correct.

6. We become the Internet.

Building on the last idea, as the ubiquity of the social web literally becomes part of our existence, we will no longer distinguish between listening, talking, and electronic communications. In our minds, there will be no more web. It will just be.

My grade: A

Look at how young people communicate today. They never think about logging into the internet. They are probably texting each other, even if they are in the same room. Lines of communication have blurred.

7. National ID validation.

The social web will become the exclusive source of consumer information, political research/policy development, and education systems. Because of the increasingly critical importance of this feedback and the opportunity for corruption, complex systems to prevent fraud will be needed, including a broadly-implemented government validation program that extends across all platforms.

My grade: C

Let’s put it this way. I correctly identified the problem, and we still need some kind of validation to prevent corruption and misinformation. Some countries have implemented a system like this, most notably India, but I’m not sure it could ever happen in the U.S.

8. Micro politics

Politicians will use real-time sentiment analysis to craft and re-craft voter appeals right up until the moment they enter a polling station. Political messaging will be nearly-instantaneous and tailored to individuals based on their private data.

My grade: A

I was 100% correct, unfortunately.

9. Extreme content

Journalism, film-making, and advertising agencies will thrive, much to the surprise of nearly everyone. The need for content on the social web will drive the digital evolution of these traditional professions, and “Content development and management” will become a popular career and college major. Salaries for the very best and most creative content providers will skyrocket as corporations raise the creative bar to cut through the clutter.

My grade: A

As every significant organization on earth competes for attention on the web, the need for quality creative content is insatiable. In fact, there is a content arms race. The sad and unsettling fact is that 90 percent of these jobs are now jeopardized by AI.

10. The “loner workforce.”

The cultural impact of the social web will have radical implications for managing the workforce of the future. We will have a dramatic increase in remote working. This will provide significant challenges for the managers of the future.

My grade A

Got an assist from the pandemic on this one, but a move to a remote workforce would have happened eventually.

11. Growing digital divide.

I predicted in 2009 that for many parts of the world, access to free, global communications will be the equalizer between rich and poor nations, especially as web-based translation services improve and encompass local dialects.

However, in countries where people cannot access the web, either for economic or political reasons, the digital divide will not only grow, it will become permanent because they will fall so far behind the technology curve they’ll never catch up. Digital commerce, innovation, and technology will be permanently dominated by those nations in the game NOW.

My grade: C

I don’t know about this one.

I was correct in predicting that many countries that were poor in 2009 would still be poor today due to corruption, oppression, and lack of free access to the web.

On the other hand, I’m not sure “ownership” and being a homebase for tech development matter to an individual’s freedom and opportunity in the long run.

In the early days of the web, France tried to create its own internet. It flopped, of course, but has the nation been disadvantaged because it didn’t own its own digital backbone? No.

There have been tech successes and innovations in almost every corner of the world.

Putting military advantages aside, most technological building blocks that help people become healthier, wealthier, wiser, and more creative are eventually available to everyone with an internet connection. At least for now, the hurdles to adoption might be language, education, and disabilities.

12. Pay for play

The 2009 prediction said: “Social media is free, but the cost of attracting consumer attention will become increasingly expensive, especially with the ability to skip ads. At some point, the cost per impression will be so high it will be less expensive to simply pay people to watch an ad.”

My grade: C

I think the wisdom here is that traditional ads (newspaper, radio, etc.) would decline, and companies would rush into digital, dramatically driving up the cost of online ads (true).

While paying people to watch ads isn’t a “thing” yet, there are certainly options like watching ads inside a game that earn points or exclusive content.

From an economic perspective, it probably makes no sense to actually pay people to watch ads all day, so the specific idea was silly, even though I got the trend right.

Final thoughts

First, thanks for obliging me with this walk down memory lane. I know the marketing predictions commentary was not the typical content you expect from me, and I’d love to hear your comments on it.

I did learn something from this exercise, and perhaps it’s something for you to think about, too.

Making a marketing prediction is merely a process of thinking through the implications of what I know to be true.

For example, I knew in 2009 that more and more work tasks could be completed on the internet. At some point, certain knowledge workers would not have to leave their homes for work, presenting new management challenges. Makes sense.

But here’s the problem I’m sensing with the world now. The rate of change is so fast and unpredictable compared to 2009, I don’t know how to know what is true.

Arguably the three biggest impacts on global business in the last two years have been a pandemic, a war, and a ship getting stuck in the Suez canal. Nobody saw this coming. Did anybody see ChatGPT coming? Even many analysts were surprised.

Last week I read that an analyst had predicted in December that it would take about seven years to cross a certain AI milestone. That milestone was crossed in three months! Yes, the speed of innovation is crazy right now! How do you make forecasts in a world like that?

My point is, so much change in the world is not only coming at us fast, it’s also unpredictable. While many of my marketing predictions from 2009 earned a B or above, I don’t know if I would have that track record going forward.

I suppose time will tell. You’ll just have to keep reading my next marketing predictions posts to find out!

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant. The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak at your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram.

Illustration courtesy Graphics Fairy

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A few short items for you today. Too short for a blog post, too big to ignore. Let’s start with a news item showing that we could be heading into a golden age for freelance content creators.

Digiday reported that more agencies are outsourcing their content needs to freelance creators as the work becomes more challenging.

A research report showed that 71 percent of in-house marketers and 68 percent of agencies are outsourcing their content needs to freelance creators. They also reported that the most effective type of content for driving results seems to be blog posts (!). They pointed to these freelance advantages:

• Flexible resources
• Specific industry knowledge
• Lower cost
• Metrics to connect content to sales

The demand for content is rising, with 86 percent of agencies agreeing that there is an increasing need, and the majority of them are further investing in content marketing in the long run. With economic pressures in 2023 and the threat of bot content, this is good news indeed for the freelance crowd.

Creators for the win

YouTube creator Jimmy Donaldson (Mr. Beast) is raising $150 mm at a $1.5 billion valuation. He has 108 mm subscribers and his latest video had 47 million views, which would make him 25 times bigger than Fox News. If that doesn’t speak to the power of the personal brand, I don’t know what does.

Book learning

I learned something interesting this week. I’ve often said that writing a book is like getting a master’s degree — at least the way I approach it! Now that I’m nearing the end of the writing journey for my next book, when I look back at the first chapters, they need an upgrade. I’m smarter now than I was at the beginning of the process!

Another slap in the Face … book

Surprising precisely no one, Facebook will shut down its invite-only newsletter service, which was started in the great newsletter hype/panic moment last year. You might recall they were paying influencers and artists to write essays through their subscription service.

No company on earth has jerked creators around more than Facebook. And they wonder why young people are abandoning the platform.

Solid advice.

Always learning!

Gave the closing keynote address at a conference in Suriname, a small and lovely country in South America. The audience was so wired and enthusiastic! Truly a ton of fun. However, I made a big mistake.

I searched Google for an image of the Suriname football (soccer) team in action to add some local flavor to a slide. I picked the best action picture and thought this would create a great reaction. But the crowd sat there a little stunned.

It was a picture of the US team.

The front of the jersey was not visible in the photo. Apparently, Google was delivering USA photos to me even though I was sitting in Suriname and searching for Suriname!

It was embarrassing but I made fun of myself and announced “Damn you Google!” to the audience. This ended up as one of the most popular parts of my speech! People commented that it was nice to see somebody vulnerable on stage. Many people even thought it was purposeful!

Something ALWAYS goes wrong at a speech and the more you speak, the more you learn about handling adversity with grace.

Tok power

In my classes, I’ve stated that TikTok is the most significant addition to the social media scene since Facebook. There are layers of depth to the platform that make it significant. Here’s another piece of proof: Pew Research reports that a small but growing share of U.S. adults say they regularly get news on TikTok.

This is in contrast with many other social media sites, where news consumption has either declined or stayed about the same in recent years.

In just two years, the share of U.S. adults who say they regularly get news from TikTok has roughly tripled, from 3 percent in 2020 to 10 percent in 2022. Also bigger than Fox News!

A lot of people are worried about how China is collecting data through TikTok. Shouldn’t we be more worried that millions of people are getting their news through TikTok?

Ah, Twitter

I have always loved Twitter. But it is becoming clear that Elon Musk spent $44 billion without a plan. Unless his plan has been to destroy it.

Of all the mistakes he has made, perhaps the worst is the clumsy firing of key employees. The capacity of Twitter’s engineering team to keep it alive and safe has been savaged. Even if he wanted to re-build, who would work in that toxic culture of fear?

Useful nugget

Did you know that Google’s PageSpeed Insights page pagespeed.web.dev will give you a free and near-instant score for the mobile and desktop versions of your website? Thank you to John Espirian for this reminder.

Sort of my personal code:

Have a great week everyone!

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling digital marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram. 

Illustration generated by AI courtesy MidJourney

The post Could this be the golden age of freelance (and other timely observations) appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

On the new episode of The Marketing Companion, I thought I would have some fun debating the most relevant marketing trends for the next two years with Dennis Yu. Dennis and I don’t always agree and this made for a lively debate on our possible future.

That two-year timeframe is essential. Change is happening so rapidly, and often, so unexpectedly, that I think it is useless to think beyond that horizon. But two years … we should be able to have some concrete ideas about that.

Dennis and I debate 10 relevant marketing trends:

• Metaverse
• NFTs
• email marketing
• Influencer marketing
• Content marketing
• Artificial intelligence
• Social media marketing
• Customer experience
• SEO
• Digital advertising

I’ll give you a hint that we easily both agreed on what should be in the number one slot. But from there it got a bit contentious!

I know you’ll enjoy this perspective and perhaps it will help launch your own discussion on relevant marketing trends! Just click here to tune in!

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I’ve been immersed in the world of measurement and influencers since the beginning. I wrote the first book on the subject.

There has been a tremendous amount of progress in testing impact — a lot of money has been devoted to attribution models. But when it comes to finding relevant influencers, especially in the B2B space, it’s been disappointing. Today I will lament that we have made almost no progress in the last ten years.

Influence based on breadcrumbs

The first company to attempt assessing influencers was Klout. Around 2009, Joe Fernandez had his jaw wired shut after an operation and had a lot of time on his hands to watch how the emerging social media streams worked. He noticed that certain people could spark actions on the web better than others and wondered if there was a way to track it and assign influence value scores to certain individuals.

Joe hired a bunch of Ph.D. statisticians and social scientists and came up with a rudimentary system, scoring every person on social media from zero to 10.

The idea was met with outrage. How could Klout possibly measure a person’s influence? After all, they had no insight into our homes and workplaces!

But what the critics missed is that influence ONLINE comes from one thing: The ability to spread content and ideas to a relevant audience. If you look at this one slice of the world, Joe Fernandez was on to something. By analyzing the vast spider web of social media interactions, he could track how effectively content spreads. And that means a lot to brands seeking to spread content!

Klout’s use of social media “breadcrumbs” to assess influence was a blunt instrument, but it was a start. It highlighted tendencies and potential opportunities for brands to connect with the best information spreaders.

The problem is, the assessment of many digital influencers, especially in B2B, has not progressed.

Influence in a rut

A few days ago, one of the top platforms for assessing digital influencers made a splashy announcement about their innovations in measurement. I won’t mention the company … it’s not important.

But when you cut through the hype of the announcement, the basis of their measurement tool is still primarily follower counts and engagement levels on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Here we are, more than a decade past Klout’s early attempts at measurement, and the system is basically the same — and arguably much worse because in the early days, Klout also tapped into the data sets of YouTube, Facebook, and other platforms that have since pulled back on API access.

I am mystified that any company would still be offering such a blunt instrument, let alone be able to sell the service, after this length of time and so little meaningful progress on assessment.

What’s the problem here?

Ignoring true influence

On the social web, there is a continuum of influence.

Generally speaking, the lowest form of influence is social media engagement because these are weak relational links. When somebody engages with a post on Twitter or LinkedIn, it’s like a follower waving at you. They might be saying, “good job,” or maybe, “Hi there!” It doesn’t necessarily mean they will buy anything from you or ever see you again. And sadly, social media engagement can be easily gamed.

Although a weak signal of influence, follower numbers and social media engagement are important because they represent potential. A social stream is an opportunity to connect to relevant people who you can move into the second stage of influence — subscriber audience.

When people subscribe to your blog, podcast, or YouTube series, you achieve reliable reach. You’re no longer sending out messages into the wide ocean of a social media platform, hoping for a connection. These folks have opted-in to you. They’ve decided to follow what you have to say because they believe in you and they want your content.

A creator/influencer certainly has a tremendous amount of power over their subscribers/fans/audience.

The third and highest level of influence is community. Not only are people subscribing to your ideas, but they are also actively part of the process. A community collaborates, co-creates, and surrounds a creator with energy and ideas as a team.

Here’s the problem. The leading measurement platforms are stuck in a rut by obsessing on the lowest level of influence — social media engagement.

The next level measurement and influencers

Here’s my frustration. Nearly all the influence is happening in audiences and communities, and it’s not that hard to figure out.

Is it difficult to know that I have a blog? Is it hard to assess whether people are sharing or commenting on that blog?

Is it impossible to see that I have a podcast? Can you see reviews of the podcast? Can you see people discussing it online?

Does an influencer have a YouTube channel? It’s too bad YouTube hides all that information. Oh, wait. They don’t, you say? Right! Anybody can tell how many videos are posted and how many subscribers and views they have in a channel just by looking.

It’s just not hard.

An example: Noah Smith is a former Bloomberg Opinion columnist and assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University. He has 26,000 Substack subscribers paying $99/year for his newsletter on business and world events. He does not have a LinkedIn account. Should we overlook him as an influencer?

It takes more effort to acknowledge audience and community platforms to super-power an influencer grading system, but after more than a decade, isn’t it time to figure it out? Shouldn’t the industry demand to move beyond the breadcrumbs of influence offered to us by Twitter and LinkedIn?

The next problem

The influence measurement problem is about to become much worse.

Younger generations aren’t hanging out on Twitter or LinkedIn at all — the bread and butter of the B2B influencer crowd. They’re on Twitch, TikTok, Fortnite, Roblox, and hiding out on private messaging services. If you’re trying to find a B2B influencer under the age of 30, the current measurement platforms are totally useless.

The response

I asked the marketing leader of the company that made this under-whelming announcement for a response to my criticism. It’s not the first time I’ve presented these concerns to this company and its competitors.

She responded with a detailed message, saying:

• “We’re 100% with you,” and
• “It is absolutely one of our priorities to get better at capturing the communities and networks that influencers own themselves – i.e. email subscribers, podcasts etc. We are working away in the background to take these lists to another level.”
• She pointed to the manual work involved as a major obstacle.

I can understand that. But aren’t we overdue for one of these platforms to drill down to where influence is actually taking place in this digital world?

I need to acknowledge that I made some sweeping generalizations in this post to make my point and keep it short. There are exceptions to everything. It is possible to have a community on social media, you can have an audience better than a community, and there are wide variations in how influencers are assessed, for example.

I wrote this because I care about the marketing industry and want to encourage our company partners to do better. A lot better.

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling digital marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram. Discover his $RISE creator community.

Illustration courtesy of Unsplash.com

The post The long ugly road of measurement and influencers appeared first on Schaefer Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}.

I’ve been blogging for more than a decade and I realized I’ve never answered this question — the most-asked question I receive — “What is the best social media channel for my business?”

So I will try to answer it today.

I normally cringe when I hear this question because to give a very specific answer, I would need to know a lot more about the company, competition, etc. The optimal marketing mix might be different for every business.

But I do have a general answer … and it might surprise you.

Is it really about the best social media channel?

When somebody asks this question, it’s normally because they are just starting out with social media — and they’re overwhelmed! They have some inclination that their business needs to be on Facebook or LinkedIn and they don’t know where to start.

Here is the place to start: You’re asking the wrong question.

You see, the real value in marketing is driven by content. The content is the fuel behind the social media engine. Social media is simply the distribution system for the content. So the first question isn’t “What is the best social media channel for my business?” It’s “What is the best content for my business?”

Again, it might seem overwhelming, but it’s not.

If you’re asking this question, you’re probably a small company with limited resources. So, you can’t do everything and be everywhere. To keep it simple, you basically have four content choices:

• Writing something like a blog
• Recording audio like a podcast
• Creating video as you would see on YouTube or live-streamed
• Visual content suitable for Instagram or Pinterest.

To stand out on the web you can’t be great in 10 places. So if you have limited resources, my recommendation is to focus on one content form, master it, and build an audience. Create something meaningful at least once a week.

Which content form do you choose? There are many considerations like competition and customers, but in the end, I recommend choosing something you enjoy because you will have to stick with it for a long time to have success.

Social media is a distribution system

Are you creating great content? Now you have some fuel to power your social media engine.

• Once you have a blog, for example, you can now post this in multiple places like LinkedIn, Twitter, Substack, and Medium.
• If you have a video, you can publish all or part of it on YouTube, TikTok, Twitter, and Instagram, to name a few.
• Likewise, a podcast can be distributed in many creative ways. YouTube is actually a huge discovery engine for podcasts.

Many of these activities can be automated, assigned to a virtual assistant, or you can do it yourself once you have the content.

What is the best social media channel for my business?

Now let’s get more specific.

With limited resources, you can probably only succeed in a limited number of places. Let’s focus on your GOALS.

I recently had a student who managed social media for a high-end private athletic club. You might think they need to be posting on LinkedIn, or perhaps Facebook.

But we had to consider the GOAL.

All their memberships were sold out. Their biggest goal right now is finding enough workers for their kitchen staff. So they are considering content on TikTok showing what a fun place it is for employees. On the surface, the teen-oriented TikTok seems like a strange place for this elite business … but not when you consider the needs of the club right now.

That’s why it’s hard for me to be prescriptive in any general way about the best social media channel without knowing many details about the goals of the business and the competitive landscape.

What are your short-term and long-term goals? Don’t post just to post. Serve the goals of the business.

Best social media channel strategy

I think if you follow the three steps I’ve discussed today, you’ll get your company in the ballpark when choosing the best social media channel:

1. Keep focused on the short-term and long-term business goals
2. Commit to consistent content to fuel social media
3. Regard social media as the distribution channel for your content

Now, this post only addresses an organic (non-advertising) social media strategy. There would be another set of considerations for a paid strategy, and most businesses need that too. But in general, I think this should help you sort through the best social media channel for your business on a macro level.

Mark Schaefer is the executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions. He is the author of some of the world’s bestselling digital marketing books and is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant.  The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

Follow Mark on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Instagram. Discover his $RISE creator community.

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